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U.S. Housing Outlook — December 2025

Irakli Ezugbaia
Irakli Ezugbaia |

🏠 U.S. Housing Outlook — December 2025

Rates ease, builders hold, investors position for the next move.

At-a-Glance:
30-yr Fixed 6.21% · 15-yr 5.47% · Median Home $409.2k · Supply 4.2 mo
Sources: Freddie Mac · Census.gov · Case-Shiller · NAR

Explore:
• Loans & financing options → https://wexmoorcircle.com/loans
• Active & upcoming projects → https://wexmoorcircle.com/projects

Macro Pulse (U.S.)

Rates

Sales

Prices

Building (Starts / Permits / Completions)

Note: update this section each month using the latest Census NRC release.

Supply dynamics (market behavior)

California — LA Metro

California pulse

LA Metro read-through

  • Negotiation room shows up first in:

    • older product

    • cosmetic fixers

    • listings with long DOM

Track current conditions (use metro filters inside Redfin):
https://www.redfin.com/state/California/housing-market

Washington, D.C. Metro

D.C. Metro read-through

  • D.C. remains job-sensitive: buyers respond fast to rate moves, but pause if affordability snaps back.

Track D.C. metro conditions (use metro filters inside Redfin):
https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market

Buy vs. Build Snapshot (Investor / Lender Lens)

Buy (Resale)

When it wins

  • You can negotiate credits, repairs, or rate buy-downs on stale listings.

  • You’re targeting cash-flow durability, not peak appreciation.

Watch-outs

  • Rate-locked sellers can be slow to cut.

  • Underwrite cap rates with room for spread widening.

Build (New / Construction)

When it wins

  • Builders can move product with incentives even when resale is tight.

  • If rates drift down, payment affordability improves and new-home demand can surprise.

Watch-outs

  • Construction execution risk: budgets, draws, and timeline discipline matter more than rate forecasts.

Next 30-Day Outlook

Catalysts

Base case

  • Sideways prices, slightly better volume if mortgage rates hold near the low-6% range and incentives stay active.

How Market Conditions Are Transmitting Through the Mortgage Channel (UWM Lens)

Mortgage channel reference: https://www.uwm.com/

  1. Rates drifting down → demand drifts up
    Buyers re-engage when payment math improves and the “move penalty” shrinks.

  2. Purchase volume pressured → share captured by speed
    In a thin market, turn-time and certainty win referrals and contracts.

  3. Loan mix shifts toward affordability tools
    Temporary buy-downs and construction-to-perm activity rise when borrowers need payment relief.

  4. Builder lending tightness persists (but doesn’t freeze)
    Capacity is filled by non-bank partners and structured execution, deal-by-deal.

  5. Efficiency + automation becomes margin defense
    Faster income/asset validation and cleaner files reduce cycle time and fallout.

  6. Borrower behavior stays threshold-based
    Small rate moves can produce large volume swings.

Innovation + Productivity Macro Themes 

These themes are derived from the December macro commentary you provided.

  1. Rolling recession → rolling recovery
    Liquidity conditions can pivot faster than sentiment, even while labor headlines lag.
    Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0FHyju1iRs

  2. Policy + incentives → capex feedback loop
    If capital spending broadens, housing demand can follow with a lag.
    Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0FHyju1iRs

  3. Technology is deflationary in practice
    Productivity gains can cool inflation even if growth improves.
    Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0FHyju1iRs

  4. Affordability is the true “switch”
    Rates plus new-home price pressure can unlock moves, listings, and transactions.
    Forecast context: https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-33822/

  5. Housing can be the surprise trade
    When a market is down long enough, small improvements can trigger outsized reactions.
    Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0FHyju1iRs

Key Insight

This cycle is threshold-driven. When affordability improves, volume returns first. Then prices stabilize. Then build activity follows.

Action Plan (Investors / Lenders)

  1. Underwrite two paths: base + stress (rates + spread + exit cap).

  2. Capture incentives: credits, buy-downs, repair escrows, seller concessions.

  3. Buy vs. Build:

    • Buy = negotiate hard on stale resale.

    • Build = enforce strict budget control + draw discipline.

  4. Track weekly rates and align lock strategy to borrower timelines.

  5. Keep files audit-clean: TRID timing, COC logic, and document flow.

Useful Data & Market References


Loans: https://wexmoorcircle.com/loans
Projects: https://wexmoorcircle.com/projects

Author

Irakli Ezugbaia — Managing Member, Wexmoor Circle LLC
📇 CA DRE #02271654 · NMLS #2728634 · NAMP-CMP
Broker of the Record: Pacific Prestige Properties, Inc (NMLS #1132725 | DRE #01900872)

With expertise in real estate investments and mortgage origination, Irakli specializes in construction financing, owner-builder projects, and FHA/Conventional loan programs.

Equal Housing Logo 40-1An Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.

 

Disclaimer & Regulatory Notice

Informational purposes only — not legal, financial, or investment advice. Refer to official forms including the Loan Estimate (LE), Closing Disclosure (CD), and Uniform Residential Loan Application (1003). All figures subject to public-data revisions.

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